{
 "publisher": "WW3.press",
 "url": "https://ww3.press",
 "generated": "2026-09-20T19:49:53Z",
 "licence": "CC BY 4.0",
 "licence_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "attribution": "WW3.press (https://ww3.press)",
 "method": "https://ww3.press/methods/",
 "documentation": "https://ww3.press/data/",
 "contact": "editor@ww3.press",
 "what_this_is_not": "Not a forecast and not a probability. Every point is arithmetic over events that have already happened and are sourced on the escalation page. A reading of 62 does not mean a 62% chance of anything.",
 "reading": {
  "percent": 75,
  "severity": 73,
  "breadth": 2,
  "unit": "loaded",
  "position": 7.3,
  "armed_levels_above": 1,
  "armed_pressure": 0.3,
  "ceiling": 79,
  "theatres_tracked": 5,
  "theatres_at_level_4_or_above": 2
 },
 "theatres": [
  {
   "id": "iran",
   "name": "Iran",
   "region": "Middle East",
   "question": "How close is the Iran war to the worst case?",
   "current": 7,
   "top": 10,
   "intensity": {
    "state": "deepening",
    "since": "2026-09-19",
    "note": "Two new categories of target inside eight days: Riyadh and the Aramco facilities at Yanbu struck on 19 September, after alerts across Jeddah, Taif, Khamis Mushait and Al Ula on the 18th. The blockade and the Bab el-Mandeb front are unchanged."
   },
   "as_of": "2026-09-19T22:45:00Z",
   "headline": "Regional war at full intensity, with a capital struck and the chokepoint blockaded",
   "levels": [
    {
     "n": 1,
     "name": "Rhetoric and sanctions",
     "criterion": "Economic coercion and diplomatic rupture, without violence between states.",
     "crossed": "2025-08-28",
     "trip": null,
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Security Council Report",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2026-09/iran-17.php",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 2,
     "name": "Covert action and proxy war",
     "criterion": "Sabotage, assassination, or fighting conducted through non-state armed groups.",
     "crossed": "2025-10-18",
     "trip": null,
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Security Council Report",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2026-09/iran-17.php",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 3,
     "name": "Direct strikes, time-limited",
     "criterion": "One state strikes another's territory openly, then stops.",
     "crossed": "2025-06-13",
     "trip": null,
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Britannica",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.britannica.com/event/12-Day-War",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "Foundation for Defense of Democracies",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/09/10/iaea-refers-irans-nuclear-file-to-un-security-council/",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 4,
     "name": "Sustained state-on-state war",
     "criterion": "Open warfare between states continuing for months, with a leadership decapitation.",
     "crossed": "2026-02-28",
     "trip": null,
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "NBC News",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/un-mission-finds-grounds-believe-us-committed-war-crimes-iran-rcna598283",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "Al Jazeera",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/8/iran-names-khameneis-son-as-new-supreme-leader-after-fathers-killing-2",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "GlobalSecurity.org",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-war-oprep.htm",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 5,
     "name": "Third countries struck",
     "criterion": "States not party to the original fight have their territory attacked.",
     "crossed": "2026-04-08",
     "trip": null,
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Security Council Report",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2026-09/iran-17.php",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "Just Security, citing Reuters",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.justsecurity.org/157793/early-edition-september-18-2026/",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 6,
     "name": "Global chokepoint degraded",
     "criterion": "A waterway or corridor the world economy depends on stops working normally.",
     "crossed": "2026-07-08",
     "trip": null,
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Bloomberg",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-10/hormuz-fuel-exports-slow-recovery-keeps-prices-near-record",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "GlobalSecurity.org",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-war-oprep.htm",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "CNBC",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/17/us-iran-war-trump-hormuz.html",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 7,
     "name": "Regional war at full intensity",
     "criterion": "Further states are drawn in as targets or belligerents, capitals come under repeated attack, and the chokepoint is broken rather than slowed.",
     "crossed": "2026-09-19",
     "trip": null,
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Associated Press",
       "title": "Saudi Arabia confirms Yemen’s Houthi rebels targeted Riyadh",
       "url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/saudi-arabia-confirms-yemens-houthi-rebels-targeted-riyadh",
       "date": "2026-09-19"
      },
      {
       "publisher": "Security Council Report",
       "title": "September 2026 Monthly Forecast: Iran",
       "url": "https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2026-09/iran-17.php",
       "date": "2026-09-01"
      },
      {
       "publisher": "CNBC",
       "title": "Hormuz, the blockade and the oil price",
       "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/17/us-iran-war-trump-hormuz.html",
       "date": "2026-09-17"
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 8,
     "name": "Great powers on opposing sides",
     "criterion": "A second nuclear-armed great power commits its own combat forces to this war, on the opposing side to one already engaged.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "Which great powers have their own combat forces in this theatre, and on which side.",
     "precondition": "Both powers are already committed diplomatically. Russia and China vetoed the US resolution renewing UN nuclear-sanctions monitoring on 17 September, and both reject the legal validity of the sanctions entirely. China is the principal buyer of Iranian crude and has been asking Tehran privately to restrain the Houthis, which is the only demonstrated leverage anyone holds in this theatre.",
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Just Security, citing The New York Times and Reuters",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.justsecurity.org/157793/early-edition-september-18-2026/",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "Security Council Report",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2026-09/iran-17.php",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 9,
     "name": "Great-power forces in direct confrontation",
     "criterion": "Great-power forces face each other directly here: blockade, interception, encirclement, or a mutual-defence clause invoked and answered. No fire exchanged between them.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "Whether those forces are in contact with each other rather than with local belligerents.",
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Just Security, citing The New York Times and Reuters",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.justsecurity.org/157793/early-edition-september-18-2026/",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "Security Council Report",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2026-09/iran-17.php",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 10,
     "name": "World War III",
     "criterion": "Two nuclear-armed great powers in direct combat with each other. Their own forces, not proxies.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "Whether great-power forces have fired on each other.",
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Security Council Report",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2026-09/iran-17.php",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2025-06-13",
     "to": 3,
     "why": "Israeli and US strikes on Iran open the Twelve-Day War."
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-06-24",
     "to": 2,
     "why": "Ceasefire. Fighting stops; sanctions and proxy friction continue."
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-02-28",
     "to": 4,
     "why": "The United States and Israel attack Iran and kill the supreme leader."
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-04-08",
     "to": 5,
     "why": "Iranian strikes hit Kuwait, the UAE and other Gulf states."
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-17",
     "to": 4,
     "why": "Islamabad memorandum signed; blockades lifted, strait reopening."
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "to": 6,
     "why": "Ceasefire collapses over attacks on shipping; Hormuz degrades again."
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-19",
     "to": 7,
     "why": "Rescored against the re-spaced scale on 19 September. The war meets the new level seven: Riyadh struck for the first time since the escalation, the Bab el-Mandeb opened as a second front, and Hormuz under blockade at roughly a quarter of pre-war volume."
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "russia-nato",
   "name": "Russia and NATO",
   "region": "Europe",
   "question": "How close is NATO to shooting at Russia for real?",
   "current": 4,
   "top": 10,
   "intensity": {
    "state": "deepening",
    "since": "2026-09-15",
    "note": "A NATO aircraft shot down an armed Russian drone over allied territory on 15 September, the first time the alliance has destroyed a weapon-carrying drone in its own airspace in this confrontation. Airspace violations and undersea infrastructure incidents continue to rise."
   },
   "as_of": "2026-09-19T09:00:00Z",
   "headline": "NATO is now routinely shooting Russian drones out of allied skies",
   "levels": [
    {
     "n": 1,
     "name": "Coercion",
     "criterion": "Sanctions, diplomatic rupture and open threat, without violence between states.",
     "crossed": "2022-02-24",
     "trip": null,
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "ABC News",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://abcnews.com/International/russia-drone-incursions-nato-airspace-jump-exponentially-2026/story?id=135771388",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 2,
     "name": "Covert and hybrid",
     "criterion": "Sabotage, arson, cyber attack or covert action against alliance members.",
     "crossed": "2024-11-17",
     "trip": null,
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Al Jazeera",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/15/nato-jet-shoots-down-suspected-russian-drone-over-lithuania",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "Malay Mail",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.malaymail.com/news/world/2026/01/06/baltic-sea-cable-sabotage-timeline-from-nord-stream-to-2026-whos-behind-the-attacks/204485",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "UK Defence Journal",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/poland-and-baltic-states-face-rising-russian-sabotage/",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 3,
     "name": "Territorial violation",
     "criterion": "Russian aircraft, drones or weapons cross into NATO territory.",
     "crossed": "2025-09-10",
     "trip": null,
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "CNN",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/11/europe/nato-article-four-poland-drones-intl",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "ABC News",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://abcnews.com/International/russia-drone-incursions-nato-airspace-jump-exponentially-2026/story?id=135771388",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "Wikipedia, reference compilation",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Eastern_Sentry",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 4,
     "name": "Exchange of fire",
     "criterion": "NATO forces fire on Russian assets, or Russian forces on NATO assets, without deaths.",
     "crossed": "2026-09-15",
     "trip": null,
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Al Jazeera",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/15/nato-jet-shoots-down-suspected-russian-drone-over-lithuania",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "NPR",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.npr.org/2026/09/15/g-s1-143284/nato-jets-down-drone-in-lithuanian-airspace",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "ABC News",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://abcnews.com/International/russia-drone-incursions-nato-airspace-jump-exponentially-2026/story?id=135771388",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 5,
     "name": "Sustained armed conflict",
     "criterion": "Open warfare between Russia and a NATO member, continuing for weeks.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "A NATO member and Russia exchanging fire repeatedly and deliberately over weeks, rather than a drone downed here and a cable cut there.",
     "precondition": "Every component already exists except intent. NATO fighters are engaging Russian hardware in allied airspace as routine air policing, violations are rising steeply, and a Russian presidential aide said in February 2026 that Russia would deploy its navy if Baltic states kept detaining its vessels. Sweden has detained three Russian ships, Germany two tankers and Finland one in the last three months.",
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Re-Russia",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://re-russia.net/en/analytics/0404/",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "ABC News",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://abcnews.com/International/russia-drone-incursions-nato-airspace-jump-exponentially-2026/story?id=135771388",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 6,
     "name": "Spillover",
     "criterion": "Uninvolved states drawn in, or a system the world depends on breaks.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "Baltic Sea closure, severing of the undersea cable and pipeline network at scale, or neutral states brought into the fighting.",
     "precondition": "The Baltic cable and pipeline network has already been failing repeatedly since 2022, which is what NATO frigates, aircraft and naval drones were deployed to protect.",
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Malay Mail",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.malaymail.com/news/world/2026/01/06/baltic-sea-cable-sabotage-timeline-from-nord-stream-to-2026-whos-behind-the-attacks/204485",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 7,
     "name": "Regional war at full intensity",
     "criterion": "Fighting between Russia and NATO members reaching each other’s cities and infrastructure, with a sea or air corridor closed to civil traffic.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "Repeated strikes on NATO or Russian territory beyond border incidents, or closure of the Baltic to civil shipping.",
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Malay Mail",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.malaymail.com/news/world/2026/01/06/baltic-sea-cable-sabotage-timeline-from-nord-stream-to-2026-whos-behind-the-attacks/204485",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 8,
     "name": "Great powers on opposing sides",
     "criterion": "A second nuclear-armed great power commits its own combat forces to this war, on the opposing side to one already engaged.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "Which great powers have their own combat forces in this theatre, and on which side.",
     "precondition": "Article 4, the consultation clause one step below it, has already been invoked over this exact issue. It has been used only eight times in the alliance's history. NATO's Military Committee chairman said in December that the alliance was weighing a \"more aggressive\" response to Russian airspace violations, sabotage and cyber attack.",
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "The Conversation",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://theconversation.com/poland-responds-to-russian-drones-incursion-by-invoking-article-4-of-the-nato-treaty-what-happens-next-265051",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "Re-Russia",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://re-russia.net/en/analytics/0404/",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 9,
     "name": "Great-power forces in direct confrontation",
     "criterion": "Great-power forces face each other directly here: blockade, interception, encirclement, or a mutual-defence clause invoked and answered. No fire exchanged between them.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "Whether those forces are in contact with each other rather than with local belligerents.",
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "The Conversation",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://theconversation.com/poland-responds-to-russian-drones-incursion-by-invoking-article-4-of-the-nato-treaty-what-happens-next-265051",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "Re-Russia",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://re-russia.net/en/analytics/0404/",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 10,
     "name": "World War III",
     "criterion": "Two nuclear-armed great powers in direct combat with each other. Their own forces, not proxies.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "Whether great-power forces have fired on each other.",
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Belfer Center",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.belfercenter.org/research-analysis/russia-nato-baltics-scenarios-europe-security",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2022-02-24",
     "to": 2,
     "why": "Full-scale invasion of Ukraine; sanctions, rupture and the start of the hybrid campaign in Europe."
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-09-10",
     "to": 3,
     "why": "Around 23 Russian drones enter Polish airspace. Poland invokes Article 4; NATO launches Operation Eastern Sentry."
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-15",
     "to": 4,
     "why": "A NATO jet shoots down a suspected Russian drone over Lithuania, the first in Lithuanian airspace."
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "china-taiwan",
   "name": "China and Taiwan",
   "region": "Asia",
   "question": "How close is the Taiwan Strait to a shot being fired?",
   "current": 3,
   "top": 10,
   "intensity": {
    "state": "steady",
    "note": "No event has been recorded at this level since the position was last set.",
    "since": "2025-11-07"
   },
   "as_of": "2026-09-19T09:00:00Z",
   "headline": "Daily incursions, no shot fired, and no American carrier in the Pacific",
   "levels": [
    {
     "n": 1,
     "name": "Coercion",
     "criterion": "Economic and diplomatic coercion of Taiwan or its partners, without violence between states.",
     "crossed": "2025-11-07",
     "trip": null,
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Al Jazeera",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/16/chinas-defence-chief-warns-against-coercion-avoids-us-japan-mention",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "Wikipedia, reference compilation",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_China%E2%80%93Japan_diplomatic_crisis",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 2,
     "name": "Covert and hybrid",
     "criterion": "Cable cutting, cyber operations, maritime militia or covert action against Taiwan.",
     "crossed": "2025-02-25",
     "trip": null,
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Taipei Times",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/04/02/2003854889",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "Taipei Times",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2026/01/29/2003851391",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 3,
     "name": "Territorial violation",
     "criterion": "Chinese aircraft or vessels cross the median line or enter Taiwan's restricted waters, without an exchange of fire.",
     "crossed": "2022-08-02",
     "trip": null,
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Taiwan Ministry of National Defense, daily report",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/taiwan/2026/taiwan-260918-roc-mnd01.htm",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "Taipei Times",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/09/18/2003864500",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "Jamestown Foundation",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://jamestown.org/quasi-quarantine-operations-held-east-of-taiwan/",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "People's Daily, Chinese state media",
       "title": null,
       "url": "http://en.people.cn/n3/2026/0903/c90000-20495690.html",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 4,
     "name": "Exchange of fire",
     "criterion": "Chinese, Taiwanese, Japanese or American state forces shoot at each other's assets. Few or no deaths.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "Most likely a Chinese coast guard boarding attempt meeting Taiwan's standing order to refuse it, a Taiwanese shoot-down of a Chinese drone over Kinmen, or an air-to-air incident following a radar lock. Least likely as a deliberate military decision.",
     "precondition": "The components are assembled. Chinese carrier-based fighters locked fire-control radar on Japanese F-15s in December 2025 and did not answer the hotline during the incident. Chinese state forces have already injured Philippine personnel in the adjacent South China Sea, striking a sailor with a baton in July 2026 and using water cannon on consecutive days. Taiwan's coast guard told commercial masters in July 2026 to refuse Chinese boarding demands and said its own vessels would physically interpose, telling Beijing \"in our waters, China has no jurisdiction\" — a collision doctrine with no referee. And since 17 August 2026 there has been no American aircraft carrier in the Western Pacific.",
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Taipei Times",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/07/02/2003860098",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "Al Jazeera",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/24/philippines-accuses-china-of-using-water-cannon-on-vessels-for-second-day",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "Taipei Times",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2026/08/17/2003862641",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 5,
     "name": "Sustained armed conflict",
     "criterion": "Open warfare between China and Taiwan, or China and the United States, continuing for weeks.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "An invasion, a declared blockade, or sustained exchanges following a level-four incident.",
     "precondition": "Nothing currently indicates intent. United States intelligence assessed in March 2026 that Chinese leaders have no plan to invade in 2027 and no fixed timeline. What exists instead is preparation: a revised National Defense Mobilization Law effective 1 October 2026 expanding requisition of civilian assets, and exercises rehearsing the blockade of ports rather than an assault.",
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Taiwan Ministry of National Defense, daily report",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/taiwan/2026/taiwan-260918-roc-mnd01.htm",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "CSIS ChinaPower",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://chinapower.csis.org/tracking-the-fourth-taiwan-strait-crisis/",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 6,
     "name": "Spillover",
     "criterion": "Uninvolved states attacked over Taiwan, or a system the world depends on breaks.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "Closure of the Taiwan Strait to commercial traffic, or an attack reaching a third country.",
     "precondition": "It has already been rehearsed once. The January 2026 militia array held position for more than thirty hours and forced commercial ships to divert. The strait is one of the busiest shipping corridors in the world, and the disruption was temporary rather than structural, but it demonstrated that a fishing fleet can interrupt it without a shot.",
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Taipei Times",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2026/01/29/2003851391",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 7,
     "name": "Regional war at full intensity",
     "criterion": "Fighting spreading beyond the strait to other regional territory, with cities under repeated attack and first island chain shipping halted.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "Strikes on Japanese, Philippine or other regional territory, or a blockade that stops rather than delays shipping through the first island chain.",
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Taipei Times",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2026/01/29/2003851391",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 8,
     "name": "Great powers on opposing sides",
     "criterion": "A second nuclear-armed great power commits its own combat forces to this war, on the opposing side to one already engaged.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "Which great powers have their own combat forces in this theatre, and on which side.",
     "precondition": "Japan has publicly stated the condition under which it would act: the prime minister told the Diet in November 2025 that an attack on Taiwan could be a survival-threatening situation permitting collective self-defence, and said in January 2026 that the alliance with Washington would collapse if Tokyo did nothing were American forces attacked during an evacuation. That is a stated condition, not an invocation. American policy remains strategic ambiguity, and Xi Jinping arrives at the White House on 24 September for his first visit in over a decade.",
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Wikipedia, reference compilation",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_China%E2%80%93Japan_diplomatic_crisis",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "Stars and Stripes",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/2026-01-20/navy-ships-taiwan-strait-china-20462710.html",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 9,
     "name": "Great-power forces in direct confrontation",
     "criterion": "Great-power forces face each other directly here: blockade, interception, encirclement, or a mutual-defence clause invoked and answered. No fire exchanged between them.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "Whether those forces are in contact with each other rather than with local belligerents.",
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Wikipedia, reference compilation",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_China%E2%80%93Japan_diplomatic_crisis",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "Stars and Stripes",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/2026-01-20/navy-ships-taiwan-strait-china-20462710.html",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 10,
     "name": "World War III",
     "criterion": "Two nuclear-armed great powers in direct combat with each other. Their own forces, not proxies.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "Whether great-power forces have fired on each other.",
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "CSIS ChinaPower",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://chinapower.csis.org/tracking-the-fourth-taiwan-strait-crisis/",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2022-08-02",
     "to": 3,
     "why": "Exercises following the Pelosi visit end the Taiwan Strait median line as a practical constraint."
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-11-07",
     "to": 3,
     "why": "Japan's prime minister ties a Taiwan attack to collective self-defence; China opens a sustained economic coercion campaign against Tokyo."
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "india-pakistan",
   "name": "India and Pakistan",
   "region": "Asia",
   "question": "How close are two nuclear states with no back channel to doing it again?",
   "current": 3,
   "top": 10,
   "intensity": {
    "state": "steady",
    "note": "No event has been recorded at this level since the position was last set.",
    "since": "2025-05-10"
   },
   "as_of": "2026-09-19T09:00:00Z",
   "headline": "Quiet, and the quiet is the most fragile thing on this page",
   "levels": [
    {
     "n": 1,
     "name": "Coercion",
     "criterion": "Economic and diplomatic rupture between the two states, without violence.",
     "crossed": "2025-04-23",
     "trip": null,
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Al Jazeera",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/1/pakistan-wins-indus-waters-battle-at-the-hague-but-india-threat-remains",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "Pakistan Today",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/09/16/ban-on-indian-aircraft-using-pakistani-airspace-extended-until-oct-24",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 2,
     "name": "Covert and hybrid",
     "criterion": "Covert action, militancy sponsorship or targeted killing, alleged by either side.",
     "crossed": "2025-04-22",
     "trip": null,
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Arab News Pakistan",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.arabnews.pk/pakistan/pakistan-accuses-india-of-overseas-killings-after-new-delhi-says-islamabad-backed-militant-network-2655038",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 3,
     "name": "Territorial violation",
     "criterion": "Forces, aircraft or vessels cross into the other's territory or claimed waters, without an exchange of fire.",
     "crossed": "2025-05-07",
     "trip": null,
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Al Jazeera",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/17/india-pakistan-navy-ship-collision-sparks-alarm-over-unintended-escalation",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "Naval Today",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.navaltoday.com/2026/09/17/indian-and-pakistani-naval-vessels-collide-in-arabian-sea",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "The Express Tribune",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://tribune.com.pk/story/2629695/pakistan-protests-indian-warships-provocative-manoeuvres-in-exclusive-economic-zone",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 4,
     "name": "Exchange of fire",
     "criterion": "The two sides shoot at each other's personnel or assets. Few or no deaths.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "A resumption of firing across the Line of Control, or a naval encounter that goes kinetic. The 15 September collision is the precedent that matters: there is no navy-to-navy hotline and no equivalent of the 1972 incidents-at-sea agreement.",
     "precondition": "Crossed once already, on 24 April 2025, and dormant since May 2025. No verifiable firing across the Line of Control was found anywhere in 2026. The collision four days ago did not re-cross this level: the ships touched hulls, no weapons were used, nobody was hurt, and an analyst noted that no chaff was fired, the conventional escalatory signal. What makes the dormancy fragile is doctrine rather than deployment. India's declared position since May 2025 treats any act of terror as an act of war and draws no distinction between militants and their state sponsors, and the prime minister described Operation Sindoor as paused rather than finished. Pakistan's declared response posture is quid pro quo plus.",
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Al Jazeera",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/17/india-pakistan-navy-ship-collision-sparks-alarm-over-unintended-escalation",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "The Diplomat",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://thediplomat.com/2026/05/a-year-after-operation-sindoor-rising-risks-and-deepening-instability/",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "International Crisis Group",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific/south-asia/india-pakistan-kashmir",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 5,
     "name": "Sustained armed conflict",
     "criterion": "Open warfare between the two states, continuing for weeks or months.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "A mass-casualty attack in India attributed to Pakistan is the dominant trigger in every serious assessment of this theatre. Second is India beginning physical works to store or divert the western rivers, which Pakistan has designated an act of war.",
     "precondition": "It has already happened once, briefly. Between 7 and 10 May 2025 the two states fought openly: Indian strikes on nine sites, Pakistani retaliation, drone and missile exchanges, and Indian strikes on Pakistani airbases assessed to have nuclear missions. SIPRI calls it their most significant armed conflict in decades. Crisis Group puts the toll at about 70 and notes it was the first time either struck deep into the other since both became nuclear-armed. It lasted four days, not weeks, so it does not meet this level's criterion — but it is the reason this theatre is not comparable to a border that has simply been quiet. Pakistan draws roughly 80 per cent of its water from the rivers India is withholding, and its army chief has threatened to destroy any dam.",
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "SIPRI Yearbook 2026",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/YB26%2008%20World%20Nuclear%20Forces.pdf",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "International Crisis Group",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific/south-asia/india-pakistan-kashmir",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 6,
     "name": "Spillover",
     "criterion": "Uninvolved states attacked, or a system the world depends on breaks.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "The dispute drawing in third states, or closure of regional airspace or sea lanes at scale.",
     "precondition": "The mutual airspace bans are a real and continuing disruption, forcing longer and costlier routings across South Asia, but they are regional rather than systemic.",
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Pakistan Today",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/09/16/ban-on-indian-aircraft-using-pakistani-airspace-extended-until-oct-24",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 7,
     "name": "Regional war at full intensity",
     "criterion": "Fighting extending well beyond Kashmir, with sustained strikes on major population centres on both sides.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "Sustained strikes on cities on both sides, rather than exchanges along the Line of Control.",
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Pakistan Today",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/09/16/ban-on-indian-aircraft-using-pakistani-airspace-extended-until-oct-24",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 8,
     "name": "Great powers on opposing sides",
     "criterion": "A second nuclear-armed great power commits its own combat forces to this war, on the opposing side to one already engaged.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "Which great powers have their own combat forces in this theatre, and on which side.",
     "precondition": "A mutual-defence clause covering Pakistan now exists and has not been invoked. Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed an agreement in Mecca on 7 August 2026 under which an armed attack on any of the three would be regarded as an attack on all. India is not named in it, and analysts disagree about whether it amounts to collective defence or closer coordination. Separately, SIPRI treats the possible extension of Pakistan's nuclear deterrent to Saudi Arabia as an open question, noting that Pakistan's own defence minister has been recorded on both sides of it.",
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Al Jazeera",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/7/turkiye-saudi-arabi-pakistan-sign-joint-defence-agreement-whats-in-it",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "SIPRI Yearbook 2026",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/YB26%2008%20World%20Nuclear%20Forces.pdf",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 9,
     "name": "Great-power forces in direct confrontation",
     "criterion": "Great-power forces face each other directly here: blockade, interception, encirclement, or a mutual-defence clause invoked and answered. No fire exchanged between them.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "Whether those forces are in contact with each other rather than with local belligerents.",
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Al Jazeera",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/7/turkiye-saudi-arabi-pakistan-sign-joint-defence-agreement-whats-in-it",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "SIPRI Yearbook 2026",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/YB26%2008%20World%20Nuclear%20Forces.pdf",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 10,
     "name": "World War III",
     "criterion": "Two nuclear-armed great powers in direct combat with each other. Their own forces, not proxies.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "Whether great-power forces have fired on each other.",
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "SIPRI Yearbook 2026",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/YB26%2008%20World%20Nuclear%20Forces.pdf",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2025-04-23",
     "to": 1,
     "why": "After the Pahalgam attack India suspends the Indus Waters Treaty, closes the border and revokes visas."
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-04-24",
     "to": 4,
     "why": "Small-arms exchanges begin across the Line of Control."
    },
    {
     "date": "2025-05-10",
     "to": 3,
     "why": "Ceasefire ends four days of open fighting. Forces pull back from forward positions and the hotline between operations directorates stays open."
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "korea",
   "name": "Korean Peninsula",
   "region": "Asia",
   "question": "How close are the two Koreas to shooting at each other again?",
   "current": 3,
   "top": 10,
   "intensity": {
    "state": "steady",
    "note": "No event has been recorded at this level since the position was last set.",
    "since": "2026-08-15"
   },
   "as_of": "2026-09-19T09:00:00Z",
   "headline": "Near-daily armed contact at the border, and nobody has fired back yet",
   "levels": [
    {
     "n": 1,
     "name": "Coercion",
     "criterion": "Sanctions, diplomatic rupture and open threat, without violence between states.",
     "crossed": "2024-10-07",
     "trip": null,
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "The Korea Herald",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10879076",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "American Enterprise Institute",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.aei.org/commentary/korean-peninsula-update-september-9-2026/",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 2,
     "name": "Covert and hybrid",
     "criterion": "Cyber operations, sabotage, jamming or covert infiltration against the other side or its allies.",
     "crossed": "2024-05-28",
     "trip": null,
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "American Enterprise Institute",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.aei.org/commentary/korean-peninsula-update-september-9-2026/",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "NK News",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.nknews.org/2026/07/no-reports-of-north-korean-gps-jamming-near-maritime-border-seoul-says/",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 3,
     "name": "Territorial violation",
     "criterion": "Troops, aircraft or weapons cross the demarcation line, without an exchange of fire.",
     "crossed": "2026-08-15",
     "trip": null,
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "The Korea Times",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/foreignaffairs/northkorea/20260909/n-korean-troops-cross-mdl-more-than-20-times-in-august",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "Korea JoongAng Daily",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/korea/2026-09-09/12867530",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "Al Jazeera",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/12/north-korea-fires-ballistic-missiles-off-eastern-coast-seoul-says",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 4,
     "name": "Exchange of fire",
     "criterion": "The two sides shoot at each other's personnel or assets. Few or no deaths.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "A North Korean unit returning fire during one of the fortification crossings, a shot that wounds or kills, or a Northern Limit Line incident involving an armed vessel rather than a merchant ship.",
     "precondition": "Everything except the second trigger-pull is already in place. South Korean troops first fired live warning shots in mid-August 2026 and have fired them repeatedly since, at a contested line where armed contact is now near-daily, under standing rules of engagement that require it. The North has not fired back once in 2026 and there have been no casualties. The last genuine two-way exchange was 24 October 2022, when South Korean warning shots at a vessel crossing the Northern Limit Line were answered within ninety minutes by coastal artillery. Seoul is publicly split on whether to soften the warning-shot rule: a newspaper reported an instruction to review it and the Joint Chiefs denied easing anything on 9 September.",
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "The Korea Herald",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10842596",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "NK News",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.nknews.org/2026/08/south-korean-troops-fire-warning-shots-at-norths-forces-crossing-border/",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "NK News",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.nknews.org/2026/09/south-korea-denies-easing-response-to-north-korean-border-crossings/",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "Digital Journal",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.digitaljournal.com/article/north-south-korea-trade-warning-shots-on-maritime-border/",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 5,
     "name": "Sustained armed conflict",
     "criterion": "Open warfare between the two Koreas, or between North Korea and the United States, continuing for weeks.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "Repeated deliberate exchanges over weeks rather than a crossing answered by warning shots.",
     "precondition": "North Korea is already a co-belligerent in a sustained interstate war, but not in this theatre. It has fought in Kursk under Article 4 of its 2024 treaty with Russia. South Korea's intelligence service put roughly 11,000 troops there at the start of 2026; Ukrainian military intelligence claims about 25,000 cumulatively including a 400-strong drone unit, and President Zelenskyy said in August that a decision had been taken to deploy 30,000 to 50,000, without explaining how he knew. Those are competing claims from parties to that war, not established figures, and none of it is happening here. What it establishes is that this army is now combat-experienced.",
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "NBC News",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/world/ukraine/zelenskyy-north-korea-troops-russia-rcna591563",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "American Enterprise Institute",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.aei.org/commentary/korean-peninsula-update-september-9-2026/",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 6,
     "name": "Spillover",
     "criterion": "Uninvolved states attacked from the peninsula, or a system the world depends on breaks.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "An attack reaching a third country, or civil aviation or shipping in the region ceasing to function.",
     "precondition": "Two systems are being degraded rather than broken. Civil aviation has absorbed sustained GPS jamming that the International Civil Aviation Organization has found unlawful, though none was detected near the maritime border in the first half of 2026. Separately, North Korean theft accounted for a reported 76 per cent of all cryptocurrency hacked by value in the first four months of 2026.",
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "NK News",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.nknews.org/2026/07/no-reports-of-north-korean-gps-jamming-near-maritime-border-seoul-says/",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "American Enterprise Institute",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.aei.org/commentary/korean-peninsula-update-september-9-2026/",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 7,
     "name": "Regional war at full intensity",
     "criterion": "Repeated fire reaching Seoul or Japanese territory, with regional shipping and air corridors closed.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "Artillery or missile fire falling repeatedly on Seoul, or a strike on Japanese territory.",
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "NK News",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.nknews.org/2026/07/no-reports-of-north-korean-gps-jamming-near-maritime-border-seoul-says/",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "American Enterprise Institute",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.aei.org/commentary/korean-peninsula-update-september-9-2026/",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 8,
     "name": "Great powers on opposing sides",
     "criterion": "A second nuclear-armed great power commits its own combat forces to this war, on the opposing side to one already engaged.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "Which great powers have their own combat forces in this theatre, and on which side.",
     "precondition": "A mutual-defence clause binding this theatre's principal actor has already been invoked and answered — but on the Ukraine axis, not here. Kim Jong Un used Article 4 of the June 2024 treaty with Russia to justify the Kursk deployment, and Pyongyang confirmed through state media in April 2025 that its forces took part. The US–South Korea treaty has not been invoked. Meanwhile the alliance is being loosened from Washington: President Trump ordered Ulchi Freedom Shield cut from eleven days to five in August 2026 and an amphibious exercise cancelled, with Seoul saying it had no advance notice.",
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Arms Control Association",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2026-09/news/trump-scales-back-us-south-korean-military-exercises",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "American Enterprise Institute",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.aei.org/commentary/korean-peninsula-update-september-9-2026/",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 9,
     "name": "Great-power forces in direct confrontation",
     "criterion": "Great-power forces face each other directly here: blockade, interception, encirclement, or a mutual-defence clause invoked and answered. No fire exchanged between them.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "Whether those forces are in contact with each other rather than with local belligerents.",
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "Arms Control Association",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2026-09/news/trump-scales-back-us-south-korean-military-exercises",
       "date": ""
      },
      {
       "publisher": "American Enterprise Institute",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.aei.org/commentary/korean-peninsula-update-september-9-2026/",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "n": 10,
     "name": "World War III",
     "criterion": "Two nuclear-armed great powers in direct combat with each other. Their own forces, not proxies.",
     "crossed": null,
     "trip": "Whether great-power forces have fired on each other.",
     "precondition": null,
     "sources": [
      {
       "publisher": "The Korea Herald",
       "title": null,
       "url": "https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10879076",
       "date": ""
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2024-10-07",
     "to": 1,
     "why": "North Korea constitutionally defines the South as a hostile state and deletes unification language."
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-15",
     "to": 3,
     "why": "North Korean troops begin crossing the Military Demarcation Line during border fortification work; the South fires its first live warning shots of 2026."
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}