Russia has banned night movement in a five-kilometre strip beside Estonia until 26 September. The zone it sits in was drawn in 2006, not this June.

Already decided by the 17 September veto. From that date nobody independent is mandated to look for diverted nuclear material, at a moment when more than 9,000 kilograms of it is unaccounted for.

What you would see first
The 27 September expiry passing without a successor resolution on the Council’s order of business.

Just Security, citing The New York Times

The material has been unaccounted for since June 2025. Nobody can currently say whether it survived, was moved or was destroyed, and after 27 September nobody will be mandated to find out.

What you would see first
An IAEA special report to the Board, or a national intelligence assessment made public.

Foundation for Defense of Democracies

It is already degraded to roughly a quarter of pre-war oil-product volume, with 103 vessels redirected and a naval blockade in force. Full closure is a change of degree, not of kind, and Iran has claimed sovereignty over the strait as a negotiating demand.

What you would see first
War-risk underwriters withdrawing cover for Gulf transits, and the redirect count rising sharply in a single week.

Bloomberg; GlobalSecurity.org

President Trump says he is close to a “big decision” on whether to launch an assault to “annihilate” the Iranian government. The present eleven-day pause in strikes rests on nothing written down.

What you would see first
Carrier movements into the Gulf, bomber deployments to Diego Garcia, and embassy drawdowns in Gulf capitals.

CBS News; GlobalSecurity.org

A Russian presidential aide said in February 2026 that Russia would deploy its navy if Baltic states kept detaining its vessels. They have kept detaining them: Sweden has taken three, Germany two tankers and Finland one in the last three months.

What you would see first
Russian warships escorting shadow-fleet tankers through the Danish straits.

Re-Russia

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed on 28 February. His successor Mojtaba Khamenei was wounded in the same strike and has not been seen in public since taking office on 9 March. A state fighting a war without a visible head of state has no obvious brake.

What you would see first
Already happened.

Al Jazeera

Withdrawal would end even the theoretical basis for inspection and remove the legal bar on weaponisation. Iran’s cooperation with the IAEA is already minimal: two Board resolutions demanding access have produced none.

What you would see first
A formal notice of withdrawal to the depositary states, which starts a three-month clock, or a Majlis bill mandating it.

Security Council Report; Foundation for Defense of Democracies

A working power reactor sits on the Gulf coast inside an active war zone. A strike causing release would be a radiological event affecting the whole Gulf littoral, including the states doing the striking.

What you would see first
IAEA emergency notification, or evacuation advisories for Bushehr province.

Institute for Science and International Security

Both powers are committed diplomatically and vetoed sanctions monitoring on 17 September. Neither has committed combat forces. This is the single largest gap between the present war and a world war.

What you would see first
Air-defence crews or “volunteers” appearing in Iran, or a Chinese naval escort convoy through Hormuz.

Just Security, citing The New York Times; Security Council Report

No ground invasion has been reported or prepared for in public. Iran is meanwhile arming civilians: the Revolutionary Guard says more than 600,000 have registered for rifle training, with over a million expected.

What you would see first
Amphibious readiness groups and a call-up of reserve sustainment units, weeks ahead of any landing.

Associated Press

Article 4, the consultation step below it, has already been invoked over Russian drones in Polish airspace, only the eighth time in the alliance’s history. Article 5 would commit thirty-two states including three nuclear powers.

What you would see first
An emergency North Atlantic Council session called at head-of-government level.

The Conversation; CNN

This is the single thing separating the current situation from a genuine NATO-Russia confrontation. NATO jets are already shooting down Russian drones over allied territory; nobody has yet been killed by one. A drone carrying explosives that lands instead of being intercepted changes the theatre overnight.

What you would see first
A national emergency statement from the affected capital, then an immediate Article 4 consultation.

Al Jazeera