Claim ledger
The assertions we are tracking, with what the evidence currently supports. A claim stays on this page whether or not it turns out to be true, so that the record of who said what survives the news cycle.
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Claimed
The United States is close to deciding whether to launch an assault to destroy the Iranian government.
Claimed by President Donald Trump,
Trump has said he is poised to make a “big decision” on whether to “annihilate” the Iranian government, and separately that “anything could happen”. No mobilisation or force movement corroborating an imminent major assault has been independently reported, and on the same days he also said the war was “hopefully” nearing its end. Treat this as a stated position, not a forecast of what will happen.
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Claimed
More than 600,000 Iranians have registered for civilian weapons training, with more than a million expected.
Claimed by Revolutionary Guard commander Hassan Hassanzadeh,
The figure comes from the Revolutionary Guard and has not been independently verified. What reporters saw directly was the rally itself: the Associated Press described hundreds of thousands of people in Tehran, and state television put the Friday morning crowd above 300,000. The training on offer is described as limited instruction, including with assault rifles.
Evidence: Associated Press
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Confirmed
The US strike on a primary school in Minab on 28 February was a war crime.
Claimed by UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Iran,
The mission, chaired by Sara Hossain, found reasonable grounds to believe the United States committed the war crime of launching indiscriminate attacks. It recorded at least 157 killed at the school, including about 120 children, and a further 22 civilians killed at a sports complex in Lamerd the same day. It cited child-oriented murals, school signage and playground areas visible in imagery of the site. What is confirmed is the finding and its reasoning. A UN mission is not a court, and no prosecution has followed. Requests for comment to the White House, State Department and Pentagon went unanswered overnight.
Evidence: NBC News; Al Jazeera; UN News
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Disputed
UN sanctions on Iran are legally in force.
Claimed by France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States, against Russia and China,
The E3 and Washington say the snapback triggered in August 2025 was valid, so only the paragraphs of resolution 2231 suspending sanctions have lapsed and the earlier measures are reinstated. Russia and China say resolution 2231 terminated Council consideration of the file on 18 October 2025 and the sanctions are gone for good. The practical result is paralysis: the sanctions committee has no chair, China and Russia blocked its work programmes in March and June 2026 and rejected eight proposed expert candidates in April, and on 17 September both vetoed renewal of the monitoring panel, whose mandate expires on 27 September.
Evidence: Security Council Report; Just Security, citing The New York Times
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Confirmed
Iran is carrying out an unlawful campaign of executions against protesters.
Claimed by Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International,
Two independent organisations with published methods reach the same conclusion. Human Rights Watch described an ongoing unlawful execution campaign on 10 September. Amnesty International on 16 September named 62 security force commanders it says should be investigated, and says the suppression bears the same hallmarks as the Mahsa Amini crackdown on a larger scale. Reported totals include more than 430 executions in Iran in 2026 and 29 announced protest-related executions between 18 March and the end of August. Iran’s government disputes that the trials were unfair.
Evidence: Human Rights Watch; Amnesty International
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Disputed
Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, including material enriched to 60 per cent, survived the attacks on its nuclear sites.
Claimed by Disputed between Iran, the United States and independent analysts,
Nobody outside Iran knows. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi told the Board of Governors that the agency has been without continuity of knowledge over the declared inventories for more than a year, dating the loss to the June 2025 attacks. More than 9,000 kilograms are recorded as inaccessible at Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan. Whether the material survived, was moved or was destroyed is unestablished, and claims in either direction rest on assertion rather than inspection.
Evidence: Foundation for Defense of Democracies; Institute for Science and International Security
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Disputed
The number of people killed in the war.
Claimed by Iran's government, HRANA, the UN humanitarian office, and the US and Israeli militaries,
There is no agreed toll and the counts measure different things. Compiled figures put Iran’s government at about 3,528 killed and 27,170 injured; the rights network HRANA at about 3,684 killed, of whom it classifies 1,721 as civilians and 1,249 as military; the UN humanitarian office at more than 3,400 civilians killed and more than 33,000 injured; and US and Israeli estimates at more than 6,000 Iranian military personnel killed. These cannot be added together or averaged. We have not been able to verify each figure at its originating source, and none of these counts covers the January 2026 protests, in which the Associated Press reports more than 7,000 people were killed.
Evidence: Wikipedia, reference compilation; Associated Press
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Claimed
Iran will return to the ceasefire immediately if the United States does.
Claimed by President Masoud Pezeshkian,
Pezeshkian said at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit that if Washington returned to its commitments under the memorandum of understanding, Iran would reciprocate at once. The memorandum expired on 17 August. No reciprocal US commitment has been reported, and attacks on shipping continued after the statement. Washington has previously said it would not hold talks until ship attacks stop.
Evidence: Spectrum News; Security Council Report
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Unverified
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is governing Iran.
Claimed by Iranian state institutions,
He was named by the Assembly of Experts on 9 March after his father was killed on 28 February, the first father-to-son succession in the Islamic Republic’s history. He was wounded in the same strike and has not been seen in public since taking office. Who is actually making decisions in Tehran is not established by anything we can point to.
Evidence: Al Jazeera; Wikipedia, reference compilation
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