Situation, report
Russia is putting a war network in orbit. Thirty-one are up, two hundred and fifty-two are planned, and the ones that fell have names.
Bureau 1440's Rassvet constellation is meant to give Russian forces in Ukraine steady communications of their own. RFE/RL counts 31 satellites in orbit against 252 planned, and reports that Rassvet terminals have not been found on Russian drones or missiles as of yet.
What we know
- Confirmed
RFE/RL reports that Bureau 1440 is placing Rassvet, a network of satellites, into low-Earth orbit, “a network meant to gradually give the Russian military in Ukraine regular, reliable communications”.1
- Confirmed
RFE/RL’s own analysis counts 31 Rassvet-3 satellites in orbit against 252 announced, at altitudes between 295 and 519 kilometres, against a declared operating altitude of 800 kilometres. Its coverage figures are calculated for a single day, 2 September 2026, and are not tracked live.1
- Confirmed
RFE/RL reports the current constellation provides only limited windows of communication to Russia’s forces in Ukraine, and states: “Rassvet terminals have not been found on Russian drones or missiles as of yet.”1
- Confirmed
An initial launch of 16 Rassvet-3 satellites was planned for 2025 and delayed to March this year. RFE/RL reports that none reached the planned 800 kilometres. One started to descend and burned up in the atmosphere, 13 are in orbit at 510 kilometres, and two are at approximately 360 kilometres.1
- Confirmed
RFE/RL reports that a second group of 16, launched in July, faces similar problems. Thirteen are rising at similar rates to the first group, while three have fallen to altitudes of 300 kilometres or less and may not end up being operational.1
- Claimed
Space expert Anatoly Zak, quoted by RFE/RL, describes the level of failures as “very painful” and “probably close to unacceptable”, and says the satellites from the second launch that are ascending are doing so “rather chaotically” at different speeds.1
- Claimed
UNITED24 Media, citing Defense Express on 25 August, reports that Rassvet-3 No. 4, identified as NORAD 68363, failed to raise its orbit and reentered Earth’s atmosphere on 6 June, and that Rassvet-3 Nos. 17 and 23, registered as NORAD 100083 and 100089, had performed no observed orbital-raising manoeuvre since separating from their launch vehicle on 19 July.2
- Claimed
UNITED24 Media reports the two operational batches of Rassvet-3 were launched on 23 March and 19 July, and that Nos. 17 and 23 remain at an average orbital altitude of roughly 290 kilometres.2
- Confirmed
RFE/RL notes that losing a percentage of satellites is normal, and that early Starlink prototypes reportedly suffered failure rates of up to 13 percent.1
What we don’t know
- Whether Rassvet will ever carry the traffic it is designed for. Both reports describe a constellation still climbing, and a long way short of its announced size.
- What the Russian military is doing with the limited windows it has now. Neither report describes an operational use.
- Whether the low altitudes are a decision or a failure. RFE/RL reports that some analysts believe Bureau 1440 chose to keep the satellites lower because of engine problems; it does not establish this.
- What happens if terminals do reach Russian drones. Neither report says what capability that would add.
The satellites have catalogue numbers. Rassvet-3 No. 4, NORAD 68363, failed to raise its orbit and came down through the atmosphere on 6 June. Nos. 17 and 23, NORAD 100083 and 100089, separated from their launch vehicle on 19 July and, by UNITED24 Media’s account of Defense Express reporting a month later, had not performed a single observed orbital-raising manoeuvre since. They were sitting at an average of about 290 kilometres.2
This is Rassvet — Dawn — the network Russian aerospace company Bureau 1440 is placing in low-Earth orbit. RFE/RL describes what it is for: “a network meant to gradually give the Russian military in Ukraine regular, reliable communications”.1
The arithmetic
The first batch of 16 was meant to fly in 2025 and flew in March. None of them reached 800 kilometres. One began to descend and burned up. Thirteen are at 510 kilometres, two at roughly 360.1 The second group of 16 went up in July: thirteen are climbing at similar rates, and three have dropped to 300 kilometres or below and may never be operational.1
Losing some is ordinary — RFE/RL notes early Starlink prototypes reportedly failed at rates up to 13 percent.1 The space analyst Anatoly Zak, quoted in the same report, puts Rassvet’s failures differently: “very painful” and “probably close to unacceptable”, and says the satellites from the second launch that are ascending are doing so “rather chaotically” at different speeds.1
What it cannot do yet
RFE/RL reports that the satellites now in orbit give Russian forces only limited windows of communication, and its coverage modelling is for one day, 2 September, rather than a live track.1
Then one sentence, carrying the whole weight of the thing:
Rassvet terminals have not been found on Russian drones or missiles as of yet.1
The gap
Thirty-one satellites are up and 252 are planned.1 One of the missing has a catalogue number and a date it came down.2 The network is described by RFE/RL as meant to give Russian forces in Ukraine regular, reliable communications, and RFE/RL reports its terminals have not been found on a Russian drone or missile as of yet.1
Keep the evidence open.
This will change. We will tell you when.
Sources
Corrections and updates
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