A Czech spy chief says Russia could move on NATO territory in 'months, not years'. Latvia's says: 'We don't see indications of an imminent attack.'

Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Republic’s BIS security service, told the Guardian that a small-scale invasion of NATO territory bordering Russia could be part of the Kremlin’s plans, and that the scenario could play out in “months, not years”.¹ In the same report, which the page carrying it timestamps Sunday 20 September, Normunds Mežviets, director general of Latvia’s state security service, said: “We don’t see indications of an imminent attack.”¹

Neither man would discuss what specific intelligence might have been obtained about Russian planning for the coming months.¹ Two verdicts, then, and no exhibits.

“It’s possible. It could involve a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, a massive influence campaign,” Koudelka said. He added that “a lot of people are doing everything they can to make sure this doesn’t happen”.¹

The Guardian’s own standfirst carries the brake beside the alarm: the campaign could intensify “in months, not years”, it says, but panic risks playing into Kremlin psy-ops.⁷

On Thursday 17 September, Polish prime minister Donald Tusk told parliament that Russia is planning hybrid strikes with drones or rockets on European countries supporting Ukraine, Poland among them.³ “There is a real risk that drones or other types of projectiles will enter the territory of one or several countries on the eastern flank and even cause destruction,” he said. “The official narration will be that it’s an accident and there is no reason for NATO to think about a response.” The English is AP’s.³

His chancellery’s account has him saying that, in the assessment of intelligence services, hybrid drone and rocket strikes on states supporting Ukraine, including Poland, are in the plans, and that late autumn and winter will be the most critical moment of the war so far. That rendering from the Polish is ours.² AP reports Tusk saying his warnings grew more specific as he received intelligence from NATO, Ukrainian and US secret services, including the CIA.³ Neither account describes the intelligence itself.³² French president Emmanuel Macron called the warnings “sound and well-documented”, the Guardian reports.¹

Officials in the three Baltic countries, which border Russian territory, have been more cautious, the Guardian reports, citing Moscow’s stretched resources in Ukraine.¹ Mežviets conceded there were signs Moscow was preparing more decisive action in Europe, then said: “It’s still an open question if they have direct and concrete plans or if it’s just within the context of their overall attempts to spread fear and uncertainty in western society.”¹

On Saturday Jonatan Vseviov, secretary general of Estonia’s foreign ministry, wrote on X: “If there is reason to fear an attack, rest assured: we will make that clear. Until then, keep calm, carry on and support Ukraine.” We have that from the Guardian, not from the post.¹

Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service leads its website with this: “Russia has no intention of militarily attacking Estonia or any other NATO member state in the coming year.” It says it is likely to reach a similar assessment next year.⁵ The page presents the service’s 2026 public report and carries no publication date, so it does not say which twelve months “the coming year” means.⁵ It also speaks of a military attack, while Tusk describes a projectile with an alibi.³ The two may not be talking about the same thing. That is our reading.

The Kremlin’s answer predates Tusk’s speech. On 27 August, spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied that Russia had plans to attack a NATO country, EFE reported from his daily telephone briefing.⁴ “It has nothing to do with reality and nothing to do with the intentions of the Russian Federation,” he said, in the Guardian’s English.¹ The Guardian sets beside that the build-up to 2022, when US officials repeatedly warned Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine and the Kremlin repeatedly denied it.¹

All three intelligence chiefs the Guardian interviewed said Russia’s sabotage campaign in Europe is likely to intensify in the coming months.¹ The third is Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden’s military intelligence and security service. On 2 September the Swedish Armed Forces quoted him calling Russia a serious and concrete threat to NATO and Sweden, in our translation, after Germany held Russia responsible for a drone incident at Leipzig airport in August.⁶ To the Guardian he said: “I think Moscow would love Nato to have endless discussion about article 4 consultations, but coming up with no actions.”¹

Mežviets described the targets shifting: “We see them looking to attack railway infrastructure, Ukraine support infrastructure. Right now we see a move towards defence industry targets.”¹

Tusk puts the most critical moment in late autumn and winter.² The observable event is the one he described: a drone or other projectile on the eastern flank, followed by an official narration that it was an accident.³ The Guardian’s interviews name kinds of target – railway infrastructure, infrastructure supporting Ukraine, defence industry.¹ No source read here gives a date or a Russian order.

Koudelka said “months, not years”. Mežviets said “We don’t see indications of an imminent attack”. Neither would discuss the intelligence.¹